We now know that Turkey planned and leads the Azerbaijani war effort.ДЇinally, the precise timing of the conflict can be explained by secondary factors: the U.S. It would seem that he also wants to have a say in the South Caucasus, a traditionally Russian zone of influence, through Azerbaijan. He is involved in conflicts in northern Syria and Iraq, in Libya and in the eastern Mediterranean. President Recep Tayyip ErdoДџan seems determined to expand the influence of his country in various directions. Thus, to counter the Azerbaijani position and his opponents, Pashinyan stated clearly that Nagorno-Karabakh is Armenian, period.ДЇourth, there is the Turkish factor. In turn, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power in the summer of 2018 as a result of a bloodless democratic regime change, the so-called вЂњVelvet Revolution,вЂќ inherited a negotiating position from his semi-authoritarian and corrupt predecessors to which he could not agree. He also claimed that parts of Armenia - the region of Zangezur and the capital, Yerevan - are Azerbaijani territories. AzerbaijanвЂ™s president Ilham Aliyev adopted a maximalist position, demanding that the surrounding regions of Nagorno-Karabakh and Nagorno-Karabakh itself be returned to Azerbaijan. Third, the negotiations have reached a deadlock. Second, the slump in oil prices, the resulting economic and social crises, and the countryвЂ™s declining oil reserves make it unlikely that Azerbaijan can sustain such military spending in the future. UC Berkeley Armenian Studies Program dIrector and associate adjunct professor Stephan Astourian Indeed, from 2012-14 Azerbaijan has spent at least $12 billion to buy armaments. In my mind, at least, these are the key factors:ДЇirst, the Azerbaijani leadership believes that their country has reached the apex of its comparative military advantage in relation to Armenia. In this sense, it differs from all the previous clashes since 1994. Stephan Astourian: This is a full-scale war, with many post-modern characteristics (use of Islamic terrorists, massive recourse to drones, a proxy war for Turkey). Berkeley News: One of the worldвЂ™s oldest conflicts, a territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, has re-erupted with the heaviest clashes in years. (AP Photo)ДЇierce battles continue in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that has killed at least 1,000 people, and possibly many more.В The fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan threatens to destabilize the South Caucasus region, in what has been one of the worldвЂ™s most protracted wars three cease-fires have already collapsed since hostilities flared at the end of September.Д«erkeley News spoke with Stephan Astourian, director of UC BerkeleyвЂ™sВ ArmenianВ Studies Program and an associate adjunct professor, about the prospects for peace, the goals of international intervention and how the Armenian community here in the U.S. Fighting over the separatist territory of Nagorno-Karabakh has entered its sixth week. Bursts of explosions are seen during fighting between Armenian and AzerbaijanвЂ™s forces near Shushi outside Stepanakert, the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Thursday, Nov.

Current conflicts 2020